Guatemala | NDC x SDG Insights | SDG Push

How To Read This Report

The NDC x SDG approach focuses on identifying the key interlinkages and pathways through which priority climate actions can accelerate a country’s most vital development goals. In doing so, it helps craft a clear, evidence-based narrative that brings together broad coalitions across government to drive coordinated progress.

The report is divided into four categories of analysis →

NDC x SDG Moment — human progress within planetary boundaries is the next development frontier. This section provides a snapshot of key climate and human development data.
NDC x SDG Alignment — maps climate commitments and national development priorities using custom machine learning tool that draws from an SDG vocabulary of 100k terms.
NDC x SDG Interlinkages — identifies national-level actions through enhanced NDCs that accelerate SDG achievement and advances a robust development case.
Finance & Stimulus — charts fiscal constraints and stimulus opportunities to ensure climate and development policy choices can be advanced with greatest impact.

1. NDC x SDG Moment

This section takes stock of the country’s current climate and sustainable development context, providing a clear snapshot of key climate and human development data and setting the scene to identify climate–development synergies.

As part of their NDC Guatemala has set a target of reducing emissions by

11.2%

Human activities are causing significant climate change with severe environmental and socio-economic consequences. Integrating climate action for emissions reduction and enhanced resilience into development strategies can advance human development and provide multiple co-benefits.

All countries are navigating through a period of profound global uncertainty and shrinking development space that is affecting the landscape of global growth. The vulnerability of debt is at its highest level in decades in many developing economies, coinciding with a period when donors are making substantial cuts to aid flows. With these global challenges, it’s important to leverage finance and resources nationally to drive development priorities.

Guatemala is in the medium human development category (of 137th of 193)and the country’s IMF Adapted ND-GAIN index indicates vulnerability to climate disruptions and some challenges to leveraging investments to adaptation actions.. With a score of 19/100 for projected emissions levels in 2050, Guatemala is making progress towards achieving carbon neutrality. Guatemala’s projected Biodiversity Intactness Index indicates a high potential impact on biodiversity in 2050 under high climate forcing scenarios.

Guatemala, the largest economy in Central America by nominal GDP, has demonstrated notable macroeconomic resilience over recent years, maintaining stable growth despite global headwinds. For 2025, real GDP growth is projected at 3.5–4.0% (IMF: 3.8%), primarily driven by robust domestic consumption and remittances — which accounted for over 21% of GDP in 2023 and remain a critical pillar of household demand. However, the K’atun 2032 Development Plan acknowledges that this growth has not significantly reduced poverty or inequality, challenges that persist: over 59% of the population lives in poverty, and labor informality affects more than 70% of workers. Stable growth is expected to continue into 2025, though structural constraints — including pervasive labor informality and underinvestment in infrastructure — continue to hinder more inclusive and equitable development.

Sources European Commission 2023 (INFORM Climate Change Risk Index), IMF 2022 (IMF-Adapted ND-GAIN Index); Environmental Performance Index 2024 (GHG growth rate adjusted by emissions intensity & Projected Emissions in 2050); Helen Phillips; Adriana De Palma; Ricardo E Gonzalez; Sara Contu et al. 2021 (Biodiversity Intactness Index).

NDC x SDG Alignment

Goal Level

This analysis shows the most prominent SDGs in each of the two national strategies on climate and development. This identifies areas of common action and potential synergies across national climate and development priorities.

Nationally Determined Contributon (NDC)

Note: Based on Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (2022)

National Development Plan(s) (NDP)

Note: Based on National Development Plan K’atun Our Guatemala 2032

These visuals are generated by analyzing the NDCs and National Development Plans through the SDG framework at goal level.

NDC x SDG Alignment

Target Level

This analysis shows how the country’s climate actions, both mitigation and adaptation, align with and drive impact across the SDGs at the target level.

Mitigation NDCs

Adaptation NDCs

These visuals are generated by analyzing NDC actions through a custom-built AI tool and categorized using the SCAN tool to surface relevant SDG synergies at the Goal level. For additional information on the NDC-SDG mapping, please visit: https://ambitiontoaction.net/scan_tool/

NDC x SDG Alignment

Action Level

This section breaks down the NDC categories into specific country commitments identified through a custom-built AI tool. The bubble sizes show how many actions fall under each category, helping pinpoint where NDC–SDG acceleration is most likely.

Guatemala 's NDC includes actions in these sectors:

Mitigation

Adaptation

3. NDC x SDG Interlinkages

NDC x SDG interlinkages reveal how climate actions can impact human development progress. Building from the country's NDC actions and SDG priorities, the following integrated SDG pathways reflect NDC actions with the most potential to accelerate the SDGs.

SDG 8.3

Promote policies to support job creation and growing enterprises.

Creating protected areas with community participation and a productive focus stimulates local value chains (ecotourism, guiding, services) and formalizes enterprises. Ecosystem-based fisheries management stabilizes supply, improves quality, and opens markets, raising productivity and decent employment among small artisanal businesses. Sustainable cattle ranching for 600 producers boosts productivity and resilience, lowers costs and income volatility, and energizes rural services (inputs, technical assistance, finance), promoting investment and entrepreneurial growth.

These activities can also boost other SDG targets: protected areas with community participation advance 15.1 (conserve terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems), 8.9 (sustainable tourism and local value chains), and 5.5 (women’s full participation in decision-making). Ecosystem-based fisheries management supports 14.4 (sustainable fish stocks), 2.3 (higher productivity and incomes for small-scale producers), and 8.5 (full and productive employment). Sustainable cattle ranching strengthens 2.4 (sustainable food production), 15.3 (land restoration and reduced degradation), and 12.2 (sustainable natural-resource management).

Priority NDC Activities

Activity 1

Sustainable cattle ranching

Activity 2

Studies and creation of new protected areas with a livelihoods focus

Activity 3

Ecosystem-based fisheries management

NDC synergies with the priority SDGs

SDG 11.1

Safe and affordable housing

The implementation of water plans will strengthen water and sanitation, improve continuity, quality, drainage, and resilience; reducing outages, disease, and costs, and facilitating investments in networks and treatment. The guide and indices across 38 watersheds it as important goal as well. They will establish standards and monitoring, prioritize investments, correct service shortcomings, and ensure safe, continuous water, targeting subsidies to informal settlements. Landfill methane capture professionalizes waste management, reduces risks, and supplies electricity, improving the affordability of the energy supply.

Water plans can impact SDG targets 6.1 (universal access to safe drinking water), 6.2 (adequate sanitation and hygiene), and 6.5 (integrated water resources management). The guide and indices across 38 watersheds can contribute to 6.3 (improve water quality), 6.4 (water-use efficiency and sustainability), and 11.5 (reduce the impact of water-related disasters). Landfill methane capture for power generation can advance 7.1 (affordable, reliable energy), 7.2 (renewables), and 12.5 (waste reduction and valorisation).

SDG 11.1—securing adequate, safe, affordable housing and basic services—reinforces 13.1 by reducing disaster vulnerability through resilient construction, drainage, and reliable utilities that lower heat-, flood-, and disease-related risks. It supports 15.1 by curbing habitat degradation: planned settlements, sanitation, and solid-waste management cut runoff, deforestation, and pollution in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. It advances 8.5 by enabling decent, productive employment: stable housing, water, energy, and transport improve health, time use, and labor participation, while upgrades create local, formal jobs.

Priority NDC Activities

Activity 1

Guidelines to strengthen resilient settlements in high-risk urban areas.

Activity 2

Climate adaptation criteria for new buildings, linked to preferential financing.

NDC synergies with the priority SDGs

SDG 11.2

Affordable and sustainable transport systems

Fleet renewal embeds modern safety standards, increases efficiency, lowers costs, and reduces breakdowns, improving affordability and service continuity. A 10% ethanol blend decarbonizes the system without requiring technological changes, maintains coverage, stabilizes supply and costs, and improves air quality for vulnerable users. Establishing the necessary transport-support infrastructure expands coverage, lowers travel time and cost

Fleet renewal supports 3.6 (road safety via advanced standards and technologies), 8.4 (resource efficiency and productivity), and 9.1 (reliable transport infrastructure). A 10% ethanol blend contributes to 7.1 (more affordable, stable energy), 12.2 (sustainable resource use through alternative fuels), and 11.6 (reducing cities’ environmental impact by improving air quality). Supporting transport infrastructure advances SDGs 7.2, 9.1, 3.9, 11.6, and 8.5 by enabling cleaner energy, resilient networks, healthier air, jobs.

Advancing SDG 11.2—safe, affordable, accessible, sustainable transport—helps deliver SDG 13.2 by embedding low-emission mobility, transit electrification, and public-transport expansion into national climate and urban policies. It supports SDG 10.1 by lowering travel costs and travel times for the bottom 40%, widening access to jobs, education, and markets, which boosts inclusive income growth. It advances SDG 3.8 by improving physical access to clinics and essential services, enhancing road safety, and reducing pollution exposure—lowering disease burden and strengthening universal health coverage.

Priority NDC Activities

Activity 1

Substitution of gasoline with advanced ethanol

Activity 2

Establishment of the infrastructure for the necessary functioning of sustainable mobility

Activity 3

Renewal of the vehicle fleet with higher-efficiency vehicles

NDC synergies with the priority SDGs

SDG 15.2

End deforestation and restore degraded forests

Conservation, protection, and sustainable forest management curb deforestation by strengthening management plans and fire control, reducing degradation and maintaining forest cover. Establishing forest plantations increases reforestation/afforestation, supplies legal timber, and eases pressure on natural forests. Restoring degraded areas recovers soils and ecological functions, improves biodiversity, increases forest stocks and resilience, and contributes to sustainably managing forests while restoring and expanding overall forest cover.

Conservation and sustainable forest management protect habitats and biodiversity (15.1), safeguard riparian forests and wetlands that regulate water flows (6.6), and reduce disaster risks by stabilizing soils and lowering wildfire and flood incidence (1.5). Responsible forest plantations create formal jobs and raise productivity in forest value chains (8.2), ensure a traceable, efficient timber supply (12.2), and promote industrial and technological modernization (9.2). Restoring degraded areas reverses land loss (15.3), improves soils and agricultural resilience (2.4), and reduces erosion and sediments, enhancing water quality (6.3).

SDG 15.2 catalyses SDG 9.5 by stimulating forest science, silvicultural R&D, genetic improvement, monitoring technologies (e.g., remote sensing/MRV), and process innovation in wood-based industries. It advances SDG 16.3 as legality verification, tenure clarification, and enforcement against illegal logging embed rule-of-law practices, transparent permitting, and accessible grievance mechanisms. It supports SDG 10.2 by empowering community and Indigenous forestry, expanding equitable access to forest assets, finance, and value chains, and creating decent rural jobs—together promoting social, economic, and political inclusion for groups historically marginalized in land and resource governance.

Priority NDC Activities

Activity 1

Conservation, protection, and sustainable management of forests

Activity 2

Establishment of forest plantations

Activity 3

Restoration of degraded areas

NDC synergies with the priority SDGs

4. Finance & Stimulus

This section examines a country's fiscal space and public investment priorities, highlighting opportunities to align stimulus measures with SDG progress and accelerated climate action.

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Public Finance

Financing needs

SDGs: Over 8.6 billion USD per annum in capital investment required to reach growth targets necessary for achieving SDGs (DFA 2021)

NDC: Total: Estimated 29.6 billion USD total by 2030

8.6 billion USD for mitigation
21 billion USD for adaptation

Financing strategy

Guatemala’s climate financing strategy combines the Sustainable Financing Framework (MINFIN, 2024) to issue bonds with the Environmental Fiscal Strategy guiding fiscal policy. The Climate Change Framework Law (Decree 7-2013) created the National Climate Change Fund (FONCC), regulated in 2022, to finance mitigation, adaptation and risk management. In 2024 the government issued sustainability notes aligned to the framework. Together, these instruments mobilize capital and ensure governance, transparency, and reporting of outcomes.

Expenditures & budgets

In 2013 the Fondo Nacional de Cambio Climático was created and regulated by Governmental Agreement 109-2022. Its objective is to finance plans, programs, and projects for risk management, vulnerability reduction, adaptation and mitigation, and capacity building. In 2025 it received an allocation of US$6.53 million.

Debt instruments

Guatemala issued a US$800 million sustainable sovereign bond in 2024, maturing 2037, under its Sustainable Financing Framework, allocating proceeds to climate mitigation, adaptation, and social objectives, with clear reporting commitments.

International climate finance

GCF: Over 113.2 million total to date
GEF: Approx. 47 million total for climate change to date
CIF: Approx. 15.4 million total to date
World Bank: 430 million total to date
Germany: 11.6 million in debt swap

Private Finance & Economy

Policy & Regulatory Measures:

Innovative Instruments:

Green bond to finance a renewable energy portfolio (mitigation).
Sustainable bond program.
Banco Promerica Guatemala — Sustainability-linked bond, 30-May-2024: bond with performance-linked incentives to fund green/social projects.
BVN (Bolsa de Valores Nacional) — Market rule, Mar-2022: internal normative enabling green/social/sustainable and sustainability-linked labels for private bonds.

International Investment:

CMI Energía — Green bond (Rule 144A/Reg S), 2021: US$700M to finance a renewable energy portfolio (mitigation).
BAC Guatemala — Sustainable bond program, 2023–2024: up to US$140M (initial US$70M) to expand green/social lending.

Domestic Investment:

The chart shows Guatemala’s private investment as a share of GDP falling from about 17–18% in the early 2000s to roughly 16% by 2008, then dropping sharply near 13% around 2009. Through the 2010s it hovers in a lower band (≈12.5–13.5%), slipping to a trough near 12% by 2018–2019. Beginning in 2020–2021, the ratio rebounds rising above 14.5% in 2022 and reaching a little over 15% in 2024. Overall, the series depicts a long decline after 2008 followed by a notable post-2020 recovery.

Development Breakthrough
Policy Brief

Each NDC x SDG Insights policy brief is a focused, country-specific deep dive that builds on the broader Insights report to unpack a single development breakthrough, outlining its policy implications and the SDG-positive actions driving it forward.

Read Guatemala's Policy Brief